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Is there any chance we will have college football next fall?

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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby Dubby » May 18th, 2020, 6:08 pm

irishmark wrote:We need to stop thinking this can be compared to the flu.

A simple Google search shows the covid 19 death rate globally at 3.4%. The flu is less than 1%.

There is no comparison. Putting 100,000 people into stadiums, is like playing Russian roulette.


Agreed

I cringe hearing flu comparisons

I also agree with putting any large crowd in stadium is playing Russian roulette

This is not under control by any stretch and country opening back up is going make it far worse
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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby Xenon » May 19th, 2020, 9:40 pm

The comparison to Flu (for better or worse) really depends on where you live ...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

Pull up California ... 2018 was much worse than 2020 in California
Arizona ... 2018 was worse than 2020
Likewise Texas, Arkansas, and other southern and especially SouthWestern states

In Utah, Idaho, Kansas, Iowa, Kentucky, and lots of other mid states, 2020 has no statistical difference from the last 5 years

In Oregon and Washington and the North West, the Flu season of 2016-2017 was way worse than Covid in 2020.

NOW, in the NorthEast, and especially New York Area, 2020 is incredibly worse than usual.... New York and the NorthEast had mercifully been spared from the H1N1 that was sooo bad in 2018 in the SouthWest.

I think that is also true globally ... Italy was sooooo bad in one "state" (can't remember what their internal divisions are called) and not bad at all in most of the rest of the country.

To say that because the Global death rate is X, we should close down everything is not rational in my opinion. It's like saying that since Hurricanes in Florida made a million homeless, everyone in Idaho should hunker down and board up their windows during Hurricane Season. But Hurricanes almost never hit Idaho.....

100,000 people in a stadium in New York City ... that's crazy. That's not just russian roulette, that is russian roulette with a fully loaded machine gun. 100,000 in Ann Arbor Michigan is questionable. 100,000 in Texas or Arizona is no more dangerous this year than it was in 2018 when we played several major bowls and championships with a raging flu seasongoing on that killed more people in those states than COVID has .

Our country is HUGE, and COVID in New York is dramatically different than COVID in Texas or COVID in Wyoming. (now, there is no 100,000 seat stadium in Wyoming ... so the point is moot)

Look at Deaths per Million ...
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coron ... ed-states/

New York = ~1500 deaths per million people
Montana = 15 deaths per million people

That's just NOT THE SAME THING at all. So you have to cancel games in New York ... but you certainly don't have to cancel games in Montana!!!

Oregon is at 33 per million from COVID when the typically have 370 Flu deaths a year. So if we have to cancel all sports in Oregon for 33 deaths per million, we should never play another game in Oregon ever, since most years are 10 times worse in Oregon than COVID.

SOME areas are safe and should be able to play games ... other areas are, for whatever reason you wish to cite, not safe at all to have crowds. But Hurricanes in Florida don't cancel games in California, and Widefires in California don't cancel games in New York, and NorEaster storms with feet of snow in New York don't cancel games in Florida.

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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby bob » May 20th, 2020, 6:25 am

Xenon,

Downplaying the threat of COVID by saying the deaths haven't exceeded the usual flu season "in some places" is shortsighted. We still haven't peaked here in AZ, but some high risk establishments are opening and well less than half of the people at the grocery store are wearing masks so as to reduce the risk they are imposing on the employees and their fellow shoppers. New York City isn't merely a troubled metro that failed to contain the disease, it is a harbinger of what will happen in any community which decides to "go back to normal" before there's an effective treatment or vaccine available.

The COVID infection rate in New York City is so high because they had the disease spread with no defensive measures for a period of maybe two months. They never had a chance to do robust contact tracing which has kept the spread of disease down in the hot-spots on the west coast.

Even in a place like Montana where there are 15 deaths per million, there will be hundreds who have the disease. That could put 5 sick in a 20k seat stadium. What do you think an infected individual's R factor goes up to from spending 4 hours in a cheering crowd that's packed in cheek to jowl? It may not be as bad as the 50 transmissions from a single individual at the choir practice in Washington, but 5-10 transmissions per asymptomatic or careless symptomatic individual is not out of the realm of possibility. How many enclosed, crowded sporting events do you think it will take to cause major flare-ups in the places which aren't all that bad right now? The worst part of it will be that it will be much more difficult to do the contact tracing for a large scale sporting event where most spectators don't know their neighbors' phone numbers and the ticket office will have only partial information. As a result, the subsequent reverberations in the community will be substantial.

The problem with COVID is that very few of us have immunity, so everyone is susceptible, which isn't the case even with the flu. The Spanish flu primarily killed younger adults because the strain had been underground for a generation and their immune systems were not acclimated to the particularly aggressive strain that emerged. This led to a long string of flare-ups over a period of years, with some of those occurring during the non-flu Summer months.

We are only at the beginning of this and nearly all of us are as vulnerable as those young adults. Fortunately, we have a much more sophisticated central bank which can better support the economy as we take steps to protect one another, not just ourselves, by wearing masks and limiting our public behavior. If we don't want COVID to be far and away the most common cause of death in the US this year, we are going to have to learn how to govern our behavior and alter activities which now pose large risks to our communities, especially when those activities are at best of tertiary value to people's lives. Yes, it's obvious that College football is of relatively low value when a true fanatic like Dubby is dubious about filling stadiums with fans.

There's the possibility that sports seasons can go on with substantially fewer or no spectators, with most of us watching from home as usual. This presumes that we aren't in worse shape this Fall than we anticipate and the athletes are able to engage in their usual practice and the contact during games isn't deemed too risky by the individuals involved. Seeing that Universities are already planning to alter their plans for the Fall semester, it seems very likely that athletic departments are working out ways to minimize the risks associated with running their sports programs for the 20-21 season. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. One thing is certain, however. It won't matter at all what the infection rate is in a few rural states if no one else in their collegiate conference is fielding a team.

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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby Xenon » May 20th, 2020, 2:04 pm

I think the NCAA BASKETBALL is an unacceptable level of risk for most places. It's lots of people, in a confined indoor location, with recycled air. AND it scheduled for the time that whatever the 2020-2021 flu season looks like AND a possible second wave of COVID on top of the normal Flu season hits. All you arguments apply extremely well to College Basketball. And to the NBA. The NBA is evidently going to try something to save their season ... so we'll get some information on how bad basketball looks with respect to COVID.

BUT, at the same time ... what you are saying Basically means we should never ever have sports ever again. We should not have sports in the NorthWest in 2015-2016, and we should not have have sports in the South and SouthWest in 2017-2018. There was a new strain of H1N1 out in 2018, and most people didn't have immunity, and it killed at least 60K people. We couldn't do contact tracking on those sporting events either. And, chances are, at least 1 year in the next 5 will have another round of 60K to 90K virus of some kind again. (we've had 3 in the last 15 years, and something like 5 in the last 30 ...).

If the possibility of a novel virus which we don't have immunity to is enough to cancel all sporting events, then we have to cancel all sporting event from now on, since that risk is very very real every year.

From 1900 to 2000, we had a serious "Flu-like" pandemic every 10 years (except as far as I can see in the 80s ... which is interesting) ... from 2000 to 2020 we have had 3 or 4 ... and they are getting worse every year.

The Crisis After COVID is likely to be just as bad if not worse ... and you'll never know it until it's too late. It's pretty obviously, looking back, anything and everything we are doing now in most states except NY/NJ SHOULD have been done in 2017-2018 if they needed to be done now. And we won't know if it's the 2022-2023 season that is going to be the next bad one, or the 2023-2024 season ... until it's already too late.

So I think the only viable proposal is a regional / local approach ... certain viruses are worse in certain areas ... for any number of reasons... Navajo Nation is hit incredibly hard ... sitting right on the four Corners ... but Utah's numbers (minus Navajo Nation) are really good, and New Mexico and Arizona numbers (again minus Navajo) are not bad ... BUT Colorado is bad.

I would have totally expected San Fran to be really bad .... high population density, large homeless population with limited access health care, etc ... BUT they are doing really quite well....

The point is ... some areas are bad, some are not, some are recovering, some might still be on the upswing or a second wave ... but NOTHING is the same across the whole country and there is no reason to have blanket one-size-fits-all solutions.

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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby Dubby » May 21st, 2020, 5:05 pm

Xenon

An estimated 80,000 people died of the flu and complications arising from the virus last winter, making it the deadliest flu season in at least 40 years. That was for last FLU season

There 94,965 deaths in the USA as of 4PM today

There no walls between the states and we all live in US

This is far worse than any FLU because there currently no cure and cases and deaths are rising by day

So I'm sorry using state or regional doesn't cut it

500K came pouring into GA from neighboring states after our Idiot Governor thought it was wise to open back up earlier than anyone else. After being one last States to have a shelter in place.

Now they've been caught 12 ways to Sunday playing Russia Roulette with our numbers to justify what he did

An Axis curve that all of sudden made Sunday on Thursday to move lower dates around to gave the appearance of lowering number

Not reporting people who are testing positive if they're not displaying symptoms

Counting 60K anti-bodies tests (For folks who may have previously had COVID-19) with the Virus test to try and bloat the numbers so they could say less folks are showing positive . That 60K shouldn't be with Virus numbers

Bottom line is this is worst than any flu as there no barriers to different parts of the country.

94,965 deaths and climbing is terrible and getting worse and is worse than the normal flu season
Last edited by Dubby on May 22nd, 2020, 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby Domer » May 22nd, 2020, 3:05 pm

Covid 19 is by far more contagious and more deadly than the flu. We are going to continue to have many, many deaths until people start taking this seriously. The POTUS is leading us in all the wrong directions.
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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby *YNC* Griff » May 23rd, 2020, 8:08 pm

I haven’t seen it mentioned here yet, but in the discussions I’ve seen, nobody’s talking about filling the stadiums. The hope is to possibly restart the season and incorporate social distancing. Meaning yes there will be people there, but they will be spread out. The stadiums will have a very low percentage of their capacity being used. But they’re hoping there will be games and there will be spectators. The trouble is figuring out who the lucky few (or unlucky if you will) will be.

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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby Xenon » May 25th, 2020, 2:30 pm

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EY3xv79UwAA ... =4096x4096

Image

In every other state EXCEPT NYC, NY, NJ ... the 2017-2018 flu season killed more people than COVID. The 2017-2018 flu season was especially bad in TEXAS and ARIZONA in Jan of 2018, when we played Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, etc etc etc.

As long as we don't play games in New York and New Jersey (and maybe Detroit, New Orleans, etc.) it is no more dangerous to be playing sports in Fall of 2020 than it was to be playing sports in Fall/Winter of 2017/2018 (or for that matter Fall/Winter of 2016/2017.

Where is your line .... when do you cancel everything?

is it 80K in a flu season ... so we should have cancelled in 2017-2018, and maybe in 2016-2017?
Or is it 100K in a flu season?

Is it when the MODELS say at the beginning of the flu season 3.5 Million? or when the MODELS say 1.0M? or 100K?

Is it when the WHO says the virus has a 3.4% death rate ... or when the CDC revises the number to a new best estimate of .4% or lower. Or when Stanford says their estimate is .26?

If it is when a model somewhere says over 100K, then there will never be sports again ever....

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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby Xenon » May 26th, 2020, 7:30 am

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/202 ... -education

53% of college presidents say return to normal on-campus classes is "very likely" in the fall, and another 31% say return is somewhat likely.

So 84% of college presidents think by the fall it is very likely that things are back running on campus ..... classes with lots of students all together, etc...

=====

Right below that,

NCAA restarting athletics on June 1st ...

May 23, 10:34 a.m. The National Collegiate Athletic Association's Division I Council has voted to allow student athletes in all sports to participate in voluntary athletics activities beginning June 1. The NCAA on May 20 had said Division I football and basketball student athletes could begin participating in on-campus voluntary athletics activities next month."


Including football ... in at least two of the Power 5....

Two of DI football's "Power Five" conferences followed the NCAA news by announcing they would allow football team workouts on campus in June, Fox News reported.

The Southeastern Conference's members will be able to bring athletes in all sports back to campus for voluntary activities starting on June 8, according to the network. The Big 12 has decided voluntary activities for football could begin June 15, with other sports following in coming weeks.

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Re: Is there any chance we will have college football next f

Postby Xenon » May 27th, 2020, 8:02 am

More good news for sports ...

NCAA just allowed ALL sports to start up June 1st ....

https://www.wxxv25.com/2020/05/26/ncaa- ... -june-1st/

At first, they only allowed Football and Basketball (the money making sports) to restart, but now they have extended that to ALL sports.

Univ of Wyoming is going to be one of the first to restart, on June 1st... And sounds like SEC is going to starting on June 8th.

BigXII probably right about then as well.

So, the good news is that those looking at the numbers and the real data are starting up everything, especially in areas NOT hard hit by COVID like the South and the Inter-Mountain West.

Also articles on PAC-12 restarting soon as well ... again, areas not hard hit by COVID at all.

I suspect ACC will follow suit soon....

I think the chances for a full football season are getting better and better every day.

The CDC keeps revising the CFR for COVID down every few days (latest I have seen from CDC is <.3) which is great news.

BE OPTIMISTIC!!! There is every reason to believe that Football will be back in the FALL!! and probably most if not all sports we love to watch!!!

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