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PAC-12 Bowl Outlook ....

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PAC-12 Bowl Outlook ....

Postby Xenon » December 16th, 2018, 10:15 pm

Opposite from the BigTen, the PAC-12 has a "structural advantage" in the half of their bowl games, and are are equal in the others and probably SHOULD win most or all bowls (but are already 0-1)

Alamo - PAC #2 vs BigXII #3
Holiday Bowl - PAC #3 vs BigTen #5
RedBox - PAC#4 vs vs BigTen #8

Rose = PAC #1 vs BigTen #1
Sun = PAC#5 vs ACC#5
CheezIts = PAC#7 vs BigXII #7

That results in the PAC-12 having a ratings advantage in many bowls...
Alamo ... Washington State vs Iowa State ... GASF 17 vs 24 ... Massey 18 vs 39
Holiday ... Utah vs NW ... GASF 22 vs 27 ... Massey 22 vs 31
Red Box ... Oregon vs MichSt ... GASF 26 vs 30 ... *Massey 36 vs 33*
Sun... Stanford vs Pitt ... GASF 25 vs 32 ... Massey 23 vs 32
Cheezits ... Cal vs TCU ... *GASF 52 vs 34* ... Massey 49 vs 53

The only bowl where the PAC-12 is not ranked ahead of their opponent in both polls I looked at was the Las Vegas bowl
Las Vegas .... ASU vs Fresno State ... GASF 43 vs 29 ... Massey 46 vs 16
AND ... the PAC-12 lost that game...

So the PAC-12 SHOULD be 5-1-1 based on "structural advantages" (i.e. the relative ranking within conference) and ratings advantage. It will be interesting to see if they turn around their horrible bowl record from the last few years (last year especially) .... but they are 0-1 right now.

Having only ONE team in the NY6 gives them a big advantage in relative rankings and ratings in all the rest of their bowls. (as compared to SEC or BigTen/BigXII)

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Re: PAC-12 Bowl Outlook ....

Postby Iconoclast » December 16th, 2018, 11:59 pm

I'm not expecting good results from the conference.
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Re: PAC-12 Bowl Outlook ....

Postby Xenon » December 18th, 2018, 10:24 pm

I'm not either really, but they are favored in most of those games as far as the odds I have seen...

WashState -3 vs IowaState
Utah -7 vs NU
Oregon -3 vs MSU
Stanford -7 vs Pitt

Take Utah and NU for example ... both are technically the runner's up in their conferences....

BUT NU is something like #5 in the selection process and Utah is #3. I don't think Utah would be favored against Penn State who was the BigTen #3 selection. But they probably should be against the BigTen #5. Although I'd really really LOVE to see NU pull of the upset.

I'm pretty surprised to see Washington State only favored by 3 .... I would expect them to win by alot against Iowa State.

It would be an interesting what if to look at the BigTen vs PAC-12 in a hypothetical even head to head....
Washington vs Ohio State ... this one we get to see ... tOSU is favored
WashState vs Michigan ... I don't know ... Michigan's DBs got torched by tOSU, so the AirRaid offense might do the same, but I don't think Washington State's Oline can hold out against Michigan Dline.
Utah vs PennState ... PSU I think would win pretty easily
Oregon vs Iowa ... probably about the same as Oregon vs MSU ... probably Oregon either way....

Anyway, I think the PAC-12 is going to do better than 1-9 or 1-10 or 1-11 or whatever their bowl record is for the last year plus this year so far.... probably something like 3-4 ... but even that is actually a step down from what they SHOULD do....

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Re: PAC-12 Bowl Outlook ....

Postby Dubby » December 19th, 2018, 12:16 am

The only bowl where the PAC-12 is not ranked ahead of their opponent in both polls I looked at was the Las Vegas bowl
Las Vegas .... ASU vs Fresno State ... GASF 43 vs 29 ... Massey 46 vs 16
AND ... the PAC-12 lost that game...


Fresno St is the MWC Champion while Arizona St is 2nd place in PAC South Division 7-6 overall 5-4 in conference

Score was tied at the half 17-17 Ariz St took the lead 20-17 before Fresno St took control on 68 yard TD run to go ahead 24-17 before winning 31-20. Fresno St committed several turnover including touch back as RB stretching out for TD fumbled out the back of the end zone. The also made mistakes ASU failed to capitalize on.
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Re: PAC-12 Bowl Outlook ....

Postby Xenon » December 27th, 2018, 9:05 am

Pac 12 bowl futilty continues

The Cheezits bowl was a slight favorite to the pac12 but the "threw it away" literally with 5 interceptions

Another bowl loss for PAC12

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Re: PAC-12 Bowl Outlook ....

Postby Xenon » January 2nd, 2019, 7:51 am

PAC12 was four points away from losing every bowl game this year ...... And honestly looked bad in most or all of those games....

I think WSU vs ISU was the "high point" for the conference in the bowls. It's the one game where they looked competitive.

Stanford won by one point on a fumble into the endzone that somehow managed to bounce right into their hands. They got outplayed the whole rest of the game. Oregon was held to right around 100 yards for the first 3 quarters, and had one drive to win the game. Neither team honestly looked all that good.

I'll have to check against all of Dubby's SUP lines, but I think the PAC-12 was 0-7 or maybe 0-6-1 against the spread.

As I said at the start of this thread, they had soooo many structural advantages, they should have 5 to 7 wins.

While this year is certainly better than the last few years for the PAC-12, it's not exactly a great year or even a good year.

To me ... SEC > BigTen >> ACC and BigXII >>>> PAC-12

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Re: PAC-12 Bowl Outlook ....

Postby Xenon » January 2nd, 2019, 7:04 pm

Interesting .... Even those INSIDE the PAC-12 see that the PAC-12 has a perception problem ...

https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2019/ ... brand.html

The Pac-12 Conference has hired one of the world’s top public relations and crisis management agencies.

Its mission?

Fixing the conference’s broken brand.

The repair is necessary, but what the conference members need most to compete is additional revenue. The brand isn’t broken because of public perception. It’s busted because of results.


The Pac-12 football programs, which finished 3-4 this bowl season, were left out of the College Football Playoff for the third time in five seasons. The men’s basketball programs went winless in the NCAA Tournament last March, and just posted the worst December by a Power 5 Conference in the last 20 seasons. The conference currently has no men’s teams ranked in the Top 25.

The conference’s brand needs immediate repair, for sure.

But without consistent positive on-field and on-court results in football and men’s basketball leading the conversation, is that possible?


But the solutions seem totally lame to me ...

Among the recommendations:

“Conduct in-depth analysis of the influencer landscape to identify neutral to positive voices and systematically build relationships with these influencers to shift the conversation.”
“Expand upon media partnerships with The Players’ Tribune and Los Angeles Times and identify new national partner(s) to increase national and regional coverage.”
“Enlist one of comedy’s great ‘coaches’ or ‘fans’ to star in a digital series that addresses the challenges of last-minute schedule and late games in a way that honors the true commitment of the Pac-12 fan.”


translation ... get some network to tell everyone that the PAC-12 is the best all the time .... which only works if you actually PLAY the best and WIN .... no one is going to say the PAC-12 is the best when have NO RANKED TEAMS in Men's Basketball ...

and

Get a comic to make people laugh WITH the PAC-12 rather than AT the PAC-12.

REALLY .... that's the plan ... geeee thanks ...

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