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How good is Clemson really?

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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby bob » January 9th, 2019, 7:18 pm

Dubby wrote:
bob wrote:I did not see anything resembling dominance last night, and the stats bear that out. Alabama had more first downs, time of possession and rushing yards. Clemson had 52 more passing yards. Alabama was not blown off the field. Until that last drive, Clemson could not run the ball at all.

What I did see was Alabama struggle with consistency, especially in the red zone, make bad decisions and lose their cool.

Clemson was the better team last night, but they weren't 4 touchdowns better than Alabama. It was nowhere near the completely dominant thrashing they gave Notre Dame.


I don't know what game you were watching then

Stats don't always tell the story the scoreboard does

This was first time 109 games Alabama failed to get a turnover or a sack

No Saban coached team have ever given up turnover for 6 points in the first drive

This was largest margin of defeat of Saban coached Bama team

Bama was trailing huge most of the 2nd half being forced to pass you're going to rack up yards passing

Make no mistake about Bama got their A$$ kicked

FR WR with 6 catches for 153 yards and TD on National stage is butt whopping


The score often doesn't reflect the full details of the game because unlikely events can skew the score. Pick sixes are unlikely in any given game, therefore are outlier events that are largely governed by chance. A lucky play isn't an expression of dominance. Having a favorable turnover result against a +8 team when you're a +3 team suggests that maybe you were a little bit lucky to go +2 against them. Facing more 3rd downs while gaining fewer first downs than your opponent is not a sign of dominance. Clemson had a much better 3rd down conversion rate, but it was not because they were in a third and short situation. Quite simply, their completion percentage was higher on third down than it was in the game overall due to some crazy catches on the sideline. Doing better on 3rd down helps win games, but it isn't dominance, it's squeaking by. Having your opponent turn the ball over on downs in field goal range 3 times is not an expression of dominance. Three and outs are dominance, and Clemson administered exactly one, and it happened in the fourth quarter after Jalen Hurts had come into the game.

Clemson won handily on the scoreboard. They did not dominate on the field. Their win against Bama was nothing like the thrashing they administered to Notre Dame. They are likely better than Alabama, but the outcome would be nowhere near certain if they were to play again.

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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby Iconoclast » January 9th, 2019, 9:58 pm

That pick six, and the other interception, weren't the result of poor play by Alabama, it was the result of Clemson seeing tendencies and putting in a great game plan which exploited those tendencies. I saw long stretches, specifically the final half to 2/3 of a game, where Alabama really didn't threaten to score, certainly not a TD. To me, that was a beat down because while Bama made some plays here and there during the second half, they never had any sustained momentum and didn't bust any wide open plays. Don't know what anyone else thinks, but that was a humiliated team when it ended. And hey, I was on the Bama bandwagon all year long, I thought they would breeze to the title. We all play the "who beat who and by how much" game when we come up with rankings, but you don't know who really is better until teams meet head to head.
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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby MikeTheTiger » January 9th, 2019, 10:37 pm

Iconoclast wrote:That pick six, and the other interception, weren't the result of poor play by Alabama, it was the result of Clemson seeing tendencies and putting in a great game plan which exploited those tendencies. I saw long stretches, specifically the final half to 2/3 of a game, where Alabama really didn't threaten to score, certainly not a TD. To me, that was a beat down because while Bama made some plays here and there during the second half, they never had any sustained momentum and didn't bust any wide open plays. Don't know what anyone else thinks, but that was a humiliated team when it ended. And hey, I was on the Bama bandwagon all year long, I thought they would breeze to the title. We all play the "who beat who and by how much" game when we come up with rankings, but you don't know who really is better until teams meet head to head.


Bama's possessions were Pick-6, TD, TD, FG, INT after driving into Clemson territory, Punt, End of Half, Fake FG, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 11, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 9 (after getting to the 1), 3-and-out. I don't see any long stretch where they weren't threatening to score. I see a team that dug themselves a big hole with some mistakes, then they pressed too much to get back into it and didn't finish drives because they were desperate. Clemson won because they didn't make mistakes and made some incredible plays, which is not an immaterial part of the game, but I agree with bob that it isn't really domination either. They are not 28 points better than Bama. They didn't even play 28 points better than Bama in that game without a few breaks. The game easily could have been 21-7 in favor of Bama at the beginning of the second quarter and the outcome might have been different.

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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby MikeTheTiger » January 9th, 2019, 10:44 pm

bob wrote:Clemson won handily on the scoreboard. They did not dominate on the field. Their win against Bama was nothing like the thrashing they administered to Notre Dame. They are likely better than Alabama, but the outcome would be nowhere near certain if they were to play again.


Clemson had 7 long drives out of 10 possession against Bama. Only 5 of 13 possessions against ND went for more than 50 yards (excluding the end of game possession). 3 of those came during the second quarter when Julian Love was out hurt. Absent that injury, I'm not sure I would conclude that Clemson was any more dominant against ND than they were against Bama. It's just the side of the ball where there were some breaks and some luck was different.

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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby Dubby » January 9th, 2019, 11:12 pm

*YNC* MikeTheTiger wrote:
bob wrote:Clemson won handily on the scoreboard. They did not dominate on the field. Their win against Bama was nothing like the thrashing they administered to Notre Dame. They are likely better than Alabama, but the outcome would be nowhere near certain if they were to play again.


Clemson had 7 long drives out of 10 possession against Bama. Only 5 of 13 possessions against ND went for more than 50 yards (excluding the end of game possession). 3 of those came during the second quarter when Julian Love was out hurt. Absent that injury, I'm not sure I would conclude that Clemson was any more dominant against ND than they were against Bama. It's just the side of the ball where there were some breaks and some luck was different.


Also Clemson was missing their best defensive player one Trevor Lawrence if you're going to mention ND losing key player Clemson played the whole game without their best defender

Also a pet peeve of mine is mentioning do overs

Bama got manhandled in this game and that all that matters a if they play again is meaningless as Clemson is National Champions The seniors for both teams are gone as are some three year guys

This is not the NFL and I don't subscribe to the what if they played again
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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby MikeTheTiger » January 9th, 2019, 11:26 pm

Dubby wrote:Also Clemson was missing their best defensive player one Trevor Lawrence if you're going to mention ND losing key player Clemson played the whole game without their best defender

Also a pet peeve of mine is mentioning do overs

Bama got manhandled in this game and that all that matters a if they play again is meaningless as Clemson is National Champions The seniors for both teams are gone as are some three year guys

This is not the NFL and I don't subscribe to the what if they played again


You're missing my point. I'm not suggesting a do-over. I'm not suggesting Clemson wasn't the better team or didn't deserve to win. All I'm suggesting is that the 27 or 28 point margins in those games weren't an indication of how much better Clemson is than ND and Bama and that the games weren't quite as one-sided as those scores might indicate on the surface. Nothing in what I am saying should be taken to suggest that Clemson's title is in anyway tainted or that they didn't play lights out.

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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby Dubby » January 10th, 2019, 12:22 am

*YNC* MikeTheTiger wrote:
Dubby wrote:Also Clemson was missing their best defensive player one Trevor Lawrence if you're going to mention ND losing key player Clemson played the whole game without their best defender

Also a pet peeve of mine is mentioning do overs

Bama got manhandled in this game and that all that matters a if they play again is meaningless as Clemson is National Champions The seniors for both teams are gone as are some three year guys

This is not the NFL and I don't subscribe to the what if they played again


You're missing my point. I'm not suggesting a do-over. I'm not suggesting Clemson wasn't the better team or didn't deserve to win. All I'm suggesting is that the 27 or 28 point margins in those games weren't an indication of how much better Clemson is than ND and Bama and that the games weren't quite as one-sided as those scores might indicate on the surface. Nothing in what I am saying should be taken to suggest that Clemson's title is in anyway tainted or that they didn't play lights out.


I was addressing Bob do over comment sorry for confusing that with ND player comment you made

I shouldn't have combined the two

bob wrote:
but the outcome would be nowhere near certain if they were to play again.


I get that in sports grilles and cant stand it :wall:

Usually its from the losing team fans AKA see Bama fans two years ago and I'm sure in the coming weeks :x

Let me try that with one Ted Ginn Jr going out after one play with florida fans or Colt McCoy goes down while Texas is moving through Bama like hot knife through cold butter and those bases have a fit saying they game is the game and they won no do overs

Flip the script and they pull a bob and try and taint their lost

ergo I don't argue do overs either way

The game is the game and I don't taint it ; bad officiating, miss calls, bad coaching etc, etc

Example Penn st blew it with Kentucky kudos to Big Blue Nation first 10 win season since 1977 (Beat Penn St that year also)

Special teams and poor coaching cost Penn St but, I won't argue what would happen if they played again. Penn St lost the game that was played.
Last edited by Dubby on January 10th, 2019, 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby Iconoclast » January 10th, 2019, 3:18 pm

*YNC* MikeTheTiger wrote:Bama's possessions were Pick-6, TD, TD, FG, INT after driving into Clemson territory, Punt, End of Half, Fake FG, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 11, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 9 (after getting to the 1), 3-and-out. I don't see any long stretch where they weren't threatening to score. I see a team that dug themselves a big hole with some mistakes, then they pressed too much to get back into it and didn't finish drives because they were desperate. Clemson won because they didn't make mistakes and made some incredible plays, which is not an immaterial part of the game, but I agree with bob that it isn't really domination either. They are not 28 points better than Bama. They didn't even play 28 points better than Bama in that game without a few breaks. The game easily could have been 21-7 in favor of Bama at the beginning of the second quarter and the outcome might have been different.


... INT after driving into Clemson territory, Punt, End of Half, Fake FG, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 11, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 9 (after getting to the 1), 3-and-out.

Six straight possessions and an entire half with no score is not a long stretch?
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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby Dubby » January 10th, 2019, 7:39 pm

Iconoclast wrote:
*YNC* MikeTheTiger wrote:Bama's possessions were Pick-6, TD, TD, FG, INT after driving into Clemson territory, Punt, End of Half, Fake FG, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 11, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 9 (after getting to the 1), 3-and-out. I don't see any long stretch where they weren't threatening to score. I see a team that dug themselves a big hole with some mistakes, then they pressed too much to get back into it and didn't finish drives because they were desperate. Clemson won because they didn't make mistakes and made some incredible plays, which is not an immaterial part of the game, but I agree with bob that it isn't really domination either. They are not 28 points better than Bama. They didn't even play 28 points better than Bama in that game without a few breaks. The game easily could have been 21-7 in favor of Bama at the beginning of the second quarter and the outcome might have been different.


... INT after driving into Clemson territory, Punt, End of Half, Fake FG, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 11, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 9 (after getting to the 1), 3-and-out.

Six straight possessions and an entire half with no score is not a long stretch?


Exactly the game I saw Clemson was hammering Bama in that 3rd Qtr mainly

Tua had 21.5 QBR

I added up some meaningless Bama stats after the was no longer in doubt.

I rewatch the show they FR WR put on just gets better

Given what Bama was doing to team all year makes this all the more impressive

I'll not let someone pick apart what I saw and make light of it
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Re: How good is Clemson really?

Postby MikeTheTiger » January 10th, 2019, 8:46 pm

Iconoclast wrote:
*YNC* MikeTheTiger wrote:Bama's possessions were Pick-6, TD, TD, FG, INT after driving into Clemson territory, Punt, End of Half, Fake FG, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 11, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 9 (after getting to the 1), 3-and-out. I don't see any long stretch where they weren't threatening to score. I see a team that dug themselves a big hole with some mistakes, then they pressed too much to get back into it and didn't finish drives because they were desperate. Clemson won because they didn't make mistakes and made some incredible plays, which is not an immaterial part of the game, but I agree with bob that it isn't really domination either. They are not 28 points better than Bama. They didn't even play 28 points better than Bama in that game without a few breaks. The game easily could have been 21-7 in favor of Bama at the beginning of the second quarter and the outcome might have been different.


... INT after driving into Clemson territory, Punt, End of Half, Fake FG, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 11, Turnover on Downs at the Clemson 9 (after getting to the 1), 3-and-out.

Six straight possessions and an entire half with no score is not a long stretch?


You said they went a long stretch without threatening to score. I'd say that getting into Clemson territory on 4 of 5 drives, into the red zone 3 of 5 times and inside the 10 twice in that stretch (excluding letting the clock run out at the end of the first half) was threatening to score.

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