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*YNC* MikeTheTiger
AKA Domeless/SECRules
(Administrator)
Premium Member
USA
11548 Posts |
 Posted - 11/14/2006 : 15:05:53
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Rank Team Average
1 Ohio St 103.4
2 Michigan 102.6
3 Rutgers 100.3
4 Louisville 99.5
5 Florida 98.9
6 USC 98.3
7 Arkansas 97.8
8 W. Virginia 96.6
9 LSU 95.6
10 Notre Dame 91.7
11 Texas 91.2
12 Wisconsin 91.2
13 Tennessee 91.0
14 Auburn 90.2
15 Oklahoma 89.8
16 Cal 89.3
17 Boise St 89.0
18 Wake Forest 88.0
19 Boston College 87.6
20 Georgia Tech 84.0
21 Virginia Tech 84.0
22 Maryland 83.7
23 Nebraska 83.1
24 Clemson 83.0
25 BYU 80.7
26 Texas A&M 80.2
27 Missouri 80.0
28 Oregon 78.5
29 Penn St 71.8
30 Oklahoma St 69.6
31 Georgia 68.7
32 S. Carolina 68.6
33 TCU 68.3
34 Texas Tech 67.4
35 Arizona St 66.5
36 Washington St 66.1
37 UCLA 65.7
38 Oregon St 65.7
39 Alabama 64.9
40 Hawaii 64.8
41 Cincinnati 64.0
42 S. Florida 63.9
43 Pitt 63.8
44 Kansas St 63.0
45 Kentucky 61.6
46 Houston 61.4
47 C. Michigan 60.8
48 Washington 60.3
49 Arizona 60.3
50 Tulsa 60.3
51 Navy 59.3
52 Florida St 56.7
53 Miami-Fl 56.4
54 Iowa 56.1
55 Ohio 54.3
56 Kansas 53.5
57 USM 52.0
58 NC St 51.2
59 Purdue 50.0
60 Minnesota 49.6
61 Air Force 48.2
62 Vanderbilt 47.5
63 Syracuse 47.1
64 Nevada 45.6
65 Connecticut 44.1
66 E. Carolina 43.7
67 Rice 43.1
68 San Jose St 41.9
69 Indiana 41.7
70 W. Michigan 41.5
71 Virginia 40.5
72 Wyoming 39.6
73 Akron 38.2
74 Baylor 38.2
75 Ole Miss 37.3
76 New Mexico 36.4
77 Utah 36.0
78 UTEP 35.5
79 MTSU 34.1
80 Kent 33.6
81 N. Illinois 33.4
82 Michigan St 31.5
83 Miss St 31.5
84 Colorado St 29.0
85 Bowling Green 28.9
86 Colorado 28.4
87 Fresno St 26.1
88 SMU 25.8
89 Illinois 25.4
90 Troy St 25.2
91 Iowa St 24.0
92 Northwestern 22.4
93 Ball St 22.1
94 C. Florida 20.0
95 Toledo 20.0
96 Marshall 19.9
97 Tulane 19.9
98 UAB 19.9
99 Army 19.8
100 Stanford 18.2
101 UL-Lafayette 16.6
102 Arkansas St 15.9
103 San Diego St 15.8
104 Idaho 15.1
105 Miami-O 14.4
106 La Tech 13.4
107 N. Texas 12.9
108 Buffalo 10.6
109 E. Michigan 10.5
110 Utah St 10.1
111 Florida Atlantic 9.8
112 UL-Monroe 8.8
113 Duke 7.4
114 Temple 6.0
115 Memphis 5.2
116 New Mexico St 4.7
117 UNC 4.5
118 Florida Internat 4.0
119 UNLV 2.7
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ND Tex
Bringing Bock the Glory
Premium Member
USA
4016 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 15:28:19
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Geez....who'da ever thunk FSU and Miami would be at 52 and 53, respectively...behind NAVY.  |
ND Tex
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Dubby
20,001 - A Dubby Space Odyssey
Barbados
24979 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 15:32:37
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quote:
Originally posted by ND Tex
Geez....who'da ever thunk FSU and Miami would be at 52 and 53, respectively...behind NAVY.
MTT owns me a monitor after seeing that. |
Gilbert Cavs team President owns Fathead and he lowered the price on Lebron fathead to $17.41. The significance of 1741 was that was the year Benedict Arnold was born.
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*YNC* MikeTheTiger
AKA Domeless/SECRules
(Administrator)
Premium Member
USA
11548 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 15:35:59
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quote:
Originally posted by Dubby
quote:
Originally posted by ND Tex
Geez....who'da ever thunk FSU and Miami would be at 52 and 53, respectively...behind NAVY.
MTT owns me a monitor after seeing that.
Legitimately, I think they should probably be just ahead of Houston-Tulsa-Navy, but still right on the edge of the Top 50. Who would have imagined such a fall by both teams at the same time? |
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Dubby
20,001 - A Dubby Space Odyssey
Barbados
24979 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 16:23:05
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quote:
Originally posted by MikeTheTiger
quote:
Originally posted by Dubby
quote:
Originally posted by ND Tex
Geez....who'da ever thunk FSU and Miami would be at 52 and 53, respectively...behind NAVY.
MTT owns me a monitor after seeing that.
Legitimately, I think they should probably be just ahead of Houston-Tulsa-Navy, but still right on the edge of the Top 50. Who would have imagined such a fall by both teams at the same time?
It's been 22 years since they both had season this bad at the same time. 1984 When Miami was 8-5 and FSU was 7-3-2. |
Gilbert Cavs team President owns Fathead and he lowered the price on Lebron fathead to $17.41. The significance of 1741 was that was the year Benedict Arnold was born.
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Irishmark
The Unimpeachable Source
(Administrator)
USA
20244 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 16:27:15
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Question, Mike.
Without MOV, where would the Irish be in your system? |
"I'm suppose to be an Athletic Director but it's coming across as a brain dead running back" Mike Garrett's conscience.
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*YNC* MikeTheTiger
AKA Domeless/SECRules
(Administrator)
Premium Member
USA
11548 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 16:55:22
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quote:
Originally posted by Irishmark
Question, Mike.
Without MOV, where would the Irish be in your system?
Without MOV, the GASF Ratings would be an entirely different system. I'm not sure how I'd go about adjusting the methodology to ignore it. I'd either have to overemphasize W-L record or overemphasize SOS, probably some combination of both. There are three things holding ND down in the Ratings, a blowout loss at home and the relatively small margins against Purdue and Michigan St. If they had lost by 14 and beaten Purdue and Michigan St by 17, they'd move ahead of LSU. They would have had to have beaten Purdue by 21+ and lost to Michigan by 12 to move ahead of Arkansas and W. Virginia. Dropping the Michigan margin to 10 (or upping the UCLA margin to 12+) moves them past USC. A little bit more puts them past Florida.
Of course I'd argue that those kinds of changes would make ND an entirely different team. They didn't win by that much and they lost pretty badily. That tells us something about ND that we shouldn't ignore. |
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Irishmark
The Unimpeachable Source
(Administrator)
USA
20244 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 16:58:42
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quote:
Originally posted by MikeTheTiger
quote:
Originally posted by Irishmark
Question, Mike.
Without MOV, where would the Irish be in your system?
Without MOV, the GASF Ratings would be an entirely different system. I'm not sure how I'd go about adjusting the methodology to ignore it. I'd either have to overemphasize W-L record or overemphasize SOS, probably some combination of both. There are three things holding ND down in the Ratings, a blowout loss at home and the relatively small margins against Purdue and Michigan St. If they had lost by 14 and beaten Purdue and Michigan St by 17, they'd move ahead of LSU. They would have had to have beaten Purdue by 21+ and lost to Michigan by 12 to move ahead of Arkansas and W. Virginia. Dropping the Michigan margin to 10 (or upping the UCLA margin to 12+) moves them past USC. A little bit more puts them past Florida.
Of course I'd argue that those kinds of changes would make ND an entirely different team. They didn't win by that much and they lost pretty badily. That tells us something about ND that we shouldn't ignore.
I guess what I'm asking is would it be any different then say Sagarin's ELO Chess which has them at #4
And what do you use do determine what should be an accurate margin of victory?
Vegas odds? I hope not. |
"I'm suppose to be an Athletic Director but it's coming across as a brain dead running back" Mike Garrett's conscience.
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Edited by - Irishmark on 11/14/2006 17:00:31 |
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*YNC* MikeTheTiger
AKA Domeless/SECRules
(Administrator)
Premium Member
USA
11548 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 17:11:10
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quote:
Originally posted by Irishmark
I guess what I'm asking is would it be any different then say Sagarin's ELO Chess which has them at #4
And what do you use do determine what should be an accurate margin of victory?
Vegas odds? I hope not.
MOV is based on historic averages. Teams tend to beat teams 28 places behind them by about 14 points on a neutral field. That's about 17.5 points at home. For example, beating #59 Purdue by 14 at home translates to a performance equivalent to a team 21 places ahead of Purdue. That's a performance just inside the Top 40. That drags the Irish down.
In any case, ND is ranked #38 in mean schedule strength by the Ratings. They are close enough to LSU that they would be ahead of LSU if I were to ignore MOV and use that schedule strength measurement. USC, Florida and Louisville have stronger SOS's by that measure amongst the one-loss teams. Rutgers is lower, but I don't know if they would be ahead on W-L. So, I suppose ignoring MOV, ND might be #6 or #7. |
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Irishmark
The Unimpeachable Source
(Administrator)
USA
20244 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 17:20:41
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So it doesn't take into account a team that led say 35-7 and gave up two garbage TD's.
This is the problem I have with MOV, but we've beaten this dead horse before. |
"I'm suppose to be an Athletic Director but it's coming across as a brain dead running back" Mike Garrett's conscience.
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*YNC* MikeTheTiger
AKA Domeless/SECRules
(Administrator)
Premium Member
USA
11548 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 17:33:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Irishmark
So it doesn't take into account a team that led say 35-7 and gave up two garbage TD's.
This is the problem I have with MOV, but we've beaten this dead horse before.
But that's not what happened, I-Mark. It was 28-14 at half with each scoring a second half TD. I'd say that an MOV of 14 accurately reflected the degree of dominance ND exerted over Purdue. If anything, the game was closer than the score. Purdue had almost 500 yards of total offense, more than ND. |
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Irishmark
The Unimpeachable Source
(Administrator)
USA
20244 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 18:22:38
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quote:
Originally posted by MikeTheTiger
quote:
Originally posted by Irishmark
So it doesn't take into account a team that led say 35-7 and gave up two garbage TD's.
This is the problem I have with MOV, but we've beaten this dead horse before.
But that's not what happened, I-Mark. It was 28-14 at half with each scoring a second half TD. I'd say that an MOV of 14 accurately reflected the degree of dominance ND exerted over Purdue. If anything, the game was closer than the score. Purdue had almost 500 yards of total offense, more than ND.
Funny, I was there and I saw the score at 35-14 with a late touchdown by Purdue to make the game look closer then it actually was. Tell my Purdue buddies that it was a close game. It wasn't.
But honestly I was only bringing up a hypothetical situation.
Again, say it was 35-7 and there are two garbage scores. Does the MOV take "garbage time" into account? |
"I'm suppose to be an Athletic Director but it's coming across as a brain dead running back" Mike Garrett's conscience.
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Edited by - Irishmark on 11/14/2006 18:24:12 |
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*YNC* MikeTheTiger
AKA Domeless/SECRules
(Administrator)
Premium Member
USA
11548 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 18:30:00
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quote:
Originally posted by Irishmark
Funny, I was there and I saw the score at 35-14 with a late touchdown. But honestly I was only bringing up a hypothetical situation.
True, Purdue scored last, but I wouldn't regard that score as outside the flow of the game. It wasn't like ND was shutting them down offensively then let up late. Anyway, on to your real point.
quote:
I-Mark said:
Again, say it was 35-7 and there are two garbage scores. Does the MOV take "garbage time" into account?
I have tossed about the idea of somehow adjusting for late scores, but the amount of data and manual input needed to accomplish such a task is just too daunting. There is no doubt that MOV isn't always the most accurate measure of the degree to which one team controlled the game. That doesn't mean we should throw the baby out with the bath water.
While your hypothetical does happen on occasion, the much more common occurrence is for a team to get one late score to either tighten or extend a lead beyond what would be the best reflection of what actually occurred. In those cases, 35-21 or 42-14 warp the "true" difference of 35-14. What's the alternative? The alternative is to treat 35-14 the same as 17-14. Which is the greater distortion, 35-21 or 17-14? Even 35-28 would be less of a distortion than ignoring MOV altogether. |
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Dubby
20,001 - A Dubby Space Odyssey
Barbados
24979 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 18:38:43
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quote:
Originally posted by Irishmark
quote:
Originally posted by MikeTheTiger
quote:
Originally posted by Irishmark
So it doesn't take into account a team that led say 35-7 and gave up two garbage TD's.
This is the problem I have with MOV, but we've beaten this dead horse before.
But that's not what happened, I-Mark. It was 28-14 at half with each scoring a second half TD. I'd say that an MOV of 14 accurately reflected the degree of dominance ND exerted over Purdue. If anything, the game was closer than the score. Purdue had almost 500 yards of total offense, more than ND.
Funny, I was there and I saw the score at 35-14 with a late touchdown by Purdue to make the game look closer then it actually was. Tell my Purdue buddies that it was a close game. It wasn't.
But honestly I was only bringing up a hypothetical situation.
Again, say it was 35-7 and there are two garbage scores. Does the MOV take "garbage time" into account?
It was 28-14 at the half. It also was 7-7 In the first quarter and Purdue last TD came with about half the 4th Qtr still to play. Early going in the 2nd half it was close game and Purdue racked up 498 yards of total offense.
It may not have been close as Purdue fans would have liked. But, from a MOV wise it's would hurt ND if that was still an element in the BCS rankings. |
Gilbert Cavs team President owns Fathead and he lowered the price on Lebron fathead to $17.41. The significance of 1741 was that was the year Benedict Arnold was born.
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Irishmark
The Unimpeachable Source
(Administrator)
USA
20244 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 18:41:33
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It was 28-7 and the game was never even close to being competitive even when Purdue scored in the 4th quarter but again, that isn't even what i'm talking about.
But that's okay, I'll take it from the people who watched it on TV that it was a close game. |
"I'm suppose to be an Athletic Director but it's coming across as a brain dead running back" Mike Garrett's conscience.
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Edited by - Irishmark on 11/14/2006 18:45:00 |
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Irishmark
The Unimpeachable Source
(Administrator)
USA
20244 Posts |
Posted - 11/14/2006 : 18:43:45
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quote:
Originally posted by MikeTheTiger
I have tossed about the idea of somehow adjusting for late scores, but the amount of data and manual input needed to accomplish such a task is just too daunting. There is no doubt that MOV isn't always the most accurate measure of the degree to which one team controlled the game. That doesn't mean we should throw the baby out with the bath water.
Fair enough, Mike.
I just want people to realize that MOV isn't always the most accurate way to guage a football game. |
"I'm suppose to be an Athletic Director but it's coming across as a brain dead running back" Mike Garrett's conscience.
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GASF Ratings- 11/12/2006
